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Further, having more prior arrests also significantly increased the likelihood of a probationer
being re-arrested (odds ratio=1.13, p<0.001).
Geographic region where the sample was serving their probation was not significantly predictive
of any re-arrest, when controlling for other demographic characteristics.
Table B in the Appendix of this report provides the results of a logistic regression of arrest
during or after termination of probation on demographic characteristics.
Arrest during probation
Compared to the northern region, living the southern region in Illinois decreased a probationer’s
likelihood of being arrested during probation (odds ratio=0.52, p<0.05). Based on the
information available in this study, it is not possible to conjecture the reasons for geographical
difference when controlling for other demographic information.
Further, being in a higher income category (odds ratio=0.67, p<0.05) decreased the likelihood of
arrest during probation.
Being in an older age group (odds ratio=0.73, p<0.001) decreased the likelihood of arrest during
probation, when controlling for other demographic characteristics.
Having more prior arrests significantly increased the likelihood of being arrested during
probation (odds ratio=1.08, p<0.001).
Table C in the Appendix of this report provides the results of a logistic regression of arrest
during probation on demographic characteristics.
Re-arrest after probation
Females had significantly lower likelihood of being arrested after probation than males (odds
ratio=0.63, p<0.05) when controlling for other characteristics. This finding was consistent with
another study that found being male was a predictor of failure on probation (Sims & Jones,
1997).
Being employed at least part-time (odds ratio=0.62, p<0.05) decreased the likelihood of arrest
after probation compared to being unemployed. This is consistent with an Illinois study that
found unemployment was associated with probationer recidivism (Lurigio, Olson, & Snowden,
2009).
Being in an older age group (odds ratio=0.62, p<0.001) decreased the odds of re-arrest after
probation, also consistent with Lurigio, Olson, and Snowden (2009) finding that being younger
was associated with probationer recidivism.
Having more prior arrests (odds ratio=1.09, p<0.001) significantly increased the likelihood of a
probationer being arrested after probation as well as having children (odds ratio=1.59, p<0.05).
