MONTHLY BRIEFING MARCH 2009
Jeffrey M. Schoenberg, Co-Chairman
Richard P. Myers, Co-Chairman
Frank J. Mautino
Dan R. Long
Trevor J. Clatfelter
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
PAGE 1 - FY 2010 Economic and Revenue Forecast and Updated FY 2009 Revenue Estimate
PAGE 10 - REVENUE: Revenue Decline Continues—March Receipts Down $110 Mil
PAGE 12-13: Revenue Tables
PAGE 14 - ECONOMY: Recessions
PAGE 16: Illinois Economic Indicators
PAGE 16 - PENSIONS: The Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund; Chicago Board of Education and State Contributions for FY 2010
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REVENUE: FY 2009 Revenue Update and FY 2010 Revenue Forecast
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager
n April 1, 2009, the Commission released its revenue estimate for FY 2009 as well as its forecast for FY 2010. While the full summary can be found on the Commission’s website, the following provides a brief synopsis.
FY 2009 GENERAL FUNDS ESTIMATE
As shown on the table on page 5, the Commission’s updated FY 2009 estimate of base general funds receipts is $27.356 billion. The forecast reflects a dramatic $2.303 billion falloff from the previous year, and reflects a decline of 7.8%. Items of note include:
The rate of decline of the most closely tied economically related sources (income and sales) is expected to accelerate further over the remainder of the fiscal year. Combined, the net year over year decline for personal, corporate, and sales tax is expected to total $1.569 billion.
Interest earnings are expected to continue to free-fall and end the year down $137 million as rates of return continue to be much lower.
Overall transfers are expected to post a combined decline of $323 million due to lower transfers from the lottery, riverboat gaming, and other transfers.
Base federal sources (unrelated to anticipated federal stimulus) are expected to fall $115 million from last year.
Fortunately, much of the base decline will be eliminated by an anticipated $2.154 billion in direct federal stimulus. Of that amount, $1.350 billion is from increased reimbursement related to Medicaid spending, while the remaining $804 million is connected to education. O