Executive Summary Fiscal Year 2002 Fourth Quarter

              Executive Summary
Fiscal Year 2002
Fourth Quarter
Economic Outlook
The national economy expanded at a 6.1 percent growth rate in the third quarter of fiscal year 2002.
DRI-WEFA estimates that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew only 1.1 percent in fiscal
year 2002, but is projected to grow 3.1 percent in fiscal year 2003.
The national unemployment rate rose during the past fiscal year. DRI-WEFA projects unemployment
of 5.5 percent and 6.0 percent in fiscal years 2002 and 2003, respectively, with both values
representing substantial increases from the unemployment rate of 4.2 percent in fiscal year 2001.
The Illinois economy generally reflects the basic trend of the national economy. DRI-WEFA estimates
the Illinois economy will contract 0.4 percent in fiscal year 2002 but then rebound in fiscal year 2003
with Gross State Product growth of 2.9 percent. Illinois unemployment measured 4.8 percent for fiscal
year 2001. DRI-WEFA forecasts higher unemployment rates of 5.9 percent and 6.3 percent in fiscal
years 2002 and 2003, respectively.
Financial Performance
In fiscal year 2002, revenues totaled $23,379 million. Expenditures totaled $24,249 million, leaving an
ending balance of $256 million in the general funds on June 30, 2002. The balance in the Budget
Stabilization Fund totaled $226 million.
Revenues and expenditures were below the estimates published in the State of Illinois Quarterly
Financial Report, April 2002 by $321 million and $378 million, respectively. Lapse period spending is
now expected to total $1,400 million, or $400 million higher than previously estimated.
Fiscal year 2003 general funds revenues are estimated to total $24,385 million and expenditures are
expected to total $24,366 million. The fiscal year 2003 ending general funds balance is projected to be
$275 million, and lapse period spending is estimated at $1,000 million. The balance in the Budget
Stabilization Fund is expected to total $226 million, which combined with the balance in the general
funds, means that fiscal year 2003 should conclude with $501 million in available reserves.